Forecasters in Portugal and Spain expect depression Charles to bring heavy rain, powerful gusts and rough seas from Nov. 10, while AEMET warned that the wider episode involving Charles and Bruna could bring local flooding.
Spain’s Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) assigned a 70% probability to the adverse weather described in its notice for Nov. 10 through Nov. 12. It forecast about 100 millimeters of rain in a day in some mountain areas of Andalusia and Málaga province, with local totals above 150 millimeters possible in the western Central System.
AEMET also forecast gusts of 90-100 km/h in parts of southwestern Spain, including lower-lying areas, and combined seas of up to 5 meters in the Gulf of Cádiz by the end of Nov. 11. In high areas of La Palma and Tenerife, gusts could exceed 130 km/h.
For the wider episode involving both Bruna and Charles, AEMET said rainfall could exceed 300 millimeters locally in parts of the Central System, including areas affected by summer wildfires. It warned of possible local flooding and rising rivers and streams across the episode, with landslides possible in wildfire-affected areas.
Portugal’s Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA) expects conditions in Madeira to worsen from late Nov. 10 through the morning of Nov. 11. Rain could top 100 millimeters in 12 hours in some places, especially mountainous areas. Southwesterly gusts of 80-100 km/h could reach about 130 km/h in high ground, while waves along the south coast could reach 3.5-4.5 meters.
On mainland Portugal, IPMA forecast heavy rain across much of the country from late morning Nov. 11, with gusts of 100-120 km/h on the depression’s southern edge and locally higher speeds possible. Waves south of Cabo Carvoeiro could reach 4-6 meters from the afternoon. IPMA said it would issue orange-level warnings and could upgrade them in some areas after forecast updates.
IPMA said the depression’s center was most likely to pass between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro, but its path and intensity remained uncertain. AEMET said Charles would probably enter Spain through Portugal. It forecast conditions easing from Nov. 12, though locally heavy showers could continue in parts of northern Spain and strong gusts could shift toward central and eastern areas. AEMET said it would update its notice Nov. 10.
