In Sweden attention is on inflation with the release of the February CPIF inflation and Prospera's inflation expectations survey.The February CPIF and CPI forecasts are 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points above Riksbank's ditt…
In Sweden attention is on inflation with the release of the February CPIF inflation and Prospera's inflation expectations survey.
The February CPIF and CPI forecasts are 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points above Riksbank's ditto but risk appears to be on the downside. Perhaps even more important for Riksbank is Prospera's quarterly inflation expectations survey.
One- and two-year expectations are record low and fiveyear expectations have been below the target for a record long nine quarters in a row.
Danske Bank notes in a report on Wednesday:
There was a slight recovery in MM players' monthly expectations in February, so do not exclude this possibility.
That said, wage expectations are key for the long-term development of inflation expectations and the former (Social Partners' average) are at record lows on all horizons.
To the extent that this is a downside risk for the upcoming wage rounds, it might in turn be a major blow to Riksbank's efforts to bring inflation back to the target in coming years
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