Respondents in Cathay Financial’s October survey expected Taiwan’s economy to grow 10.94% in 2026, while record equity optimism contrasted with the smaller share crediting wages or jobs for household gains.
Cathay’s stock-market optimism measure advanced to 55.0 from 49.1 in September, its highest reading on record. Its current-conditions index rose to 19.7 from 14.8, while the six-month outlook gauge reached 20.0, up from 16.5. Cathay linked firmer share-market sentiment to AI-related fundamentals.
In responses about household finances, investment gains ranked ahead of wages or jobs as a benefit of the expansion: 42% selected investment returns, compared with 10% who pointed to wages, bonuses or employment. Another 37% said their income had not increased enough for them to feel the effects of the upswing. These answers reflect survey participants and do not measure how gains were distributed across all Taiwanese households.
The survey’s wage-expectations index set a record at 25.3, and willingness to make large purchases rose to 19.1. A risk-preference gauge increased to 35.0 from 32.9, while the durable-goods willingness index remained below zero at minus 3.3.
Respondents’ average forecast for Taiwan’s 2026 growth was 10.94%; 55% expected growth above 11%. DGBAS forecast 11.05% growth in August. Average inflation expectations were 2.52%, with 52% expecting inflation above 2.5%; DGBAS projected a 2.07% rise in the consumer price index.
DGBAS reported that real gross domestic product grew 12.93% year over year in the second quarter of 2026. The agency said overseas demand for AI and related applications accounted for most of the export expansion. It also revised first-quarter growth to 15.43%.
Cathay reported 13,461 valid responses during its Oct. 1-7 survey. Cathay said it sent the survey to members of Cathay Life Insurance’s website and to Cathay United Bank clients.
