Thailand’s consumer prices rose 3.90% year over year in October, with fuel accounting for about 56% of the headline inflation rate and pushing it above the central bank’s target range.
Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce said the annual rise accelerated from 2.82% in September. The consumer price index also increased 0.94% from the previous month. Fuel prices were 29.18% higher than a year earlier, adding 2.18 percentage points to October’s inflation rate, or about 56% of the total, the ministry estimated. It cited higher global energy prices and the comparison with lower fuel prices a year earlier.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices were up 4.26% year over year, while fresh vegetables rose 17.34%. The ministry said flooding in key growing areas affected some vegetable prices early in October and that prices were beginning to ease toward usual levels late in the month. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food and energy, was 1.58% year over year, compared with 1.50% in September.
The October headline rate exceeded the Bank of Thailand’s medium-term target range of 1% to 3%. The Ministry of Commerce kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 1.8% to 2.2%, with a midpoint of 2.0%. The central bank’s October outlook put average inflation at 2.1% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027.
Before the October CPI figures were released, members present on the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.00% at their Oct. 28 meeting; one member could not attend. The committee said energy prices and El Niño could add to inflation risks and flagged the possibility that businesses pass higher costs on to consumers. The central bank has also cited cost-of-living pressure on low-income households and credit challenges for small and medium-sized businesses.
The Bank of Thailand’s next scheduled rate decision is Dec. 23.
