The Economist put Afghan nationals’ adjusted sexual-offense conviction rate in England and Wales at seven times the British rate for 2020-22, while the records do not generally show immigration status or length of residence.
Oxford University’s Migration Observatory says the Ministry of Justice provided information in response to a freedom of information request, with figures drawn from an extract of the Police National Computer (PNC). The records cover cautions and convictions, grouped by year, recorded nationality and broad offense category. The Observatory says nationality is self-reported, one person may be counted more than once, and the categories do not distinguish offenses by seriousness.
The Economist reported that, from 2010 to 2024, 409 of 106,000 sexual-offense records in England and Wales listed Afghan nationality, or 0.39%. Those records are justice-system outcomes, not a count of distinct people or all offending.
For its 2020-22 comparison, The Economist used an Afghan population estimate averaged across the three years and adjusted the conviction rate for age and sex. It said repeat offenders and differences in reporting or detection could skew the result.
Sky News separately reported 77 Afghan nationals convicted of sexual offenses in England and Wales from 2021 to 2023. Using 2021 Census population figures by country of birth, it calculated 9.0 convictions per 10,000 Afghan-born residents and 2.9 per 10,000 UK-born residents. Sky said its estimate had limitations; its period and birthplace-based denominator differ from The Economist’s measures, so the rates are not directly comparable.
The Migration Observatory’s aggregate figures show that noncitizens accounted for 43,250 cautions and convictions, or 13.1%, in England and Wales in 2024. It estimated noncitizens represented about 13.5% of the adult population in 2025 and described the overall rates as broadly similar. Those totals do not establish rates for individual nationalities or sexual offenses.
In comments reported by Sky News, the Migration Observatory said problems in the official data make it “extremely difficult to analyse these variations with confidence.”
