Qatar’s recovery outlook hinges on rebuilding gas exports after facility damage, as The National reported that S&P Global Ratings sees real GDP falling 14% in 2026 and rising 15% in 2027.
The National linked the expected rebound to gas supplies returning to export markets. It also reported that S&P expects average growth of 8% in 2028 and 2029, with inflation near 4%. S&P affirmed Qatar’s sovereign ratings at AA/A-1+ with a stable outlook in an Oct. 30 notice.
The International Monetary Fund’s October World Economic Outlook projects Qatar’s real GDP will contract 15.6% in 2026 and expand 18.8% in 2027. Those figures point to a deeper downturn and a larger rebound than the outlook attributed to S&P by The National.
QatarEnergy said attacks damaged two of Qatar’s 14 liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains in March, taking 12.8 million metric tons of annual capacity offline, or about 17% of exports. The company initially estimated repairs would take three to five years. In September, Minister of State for Energy Affairs and QatarEnergy President and CEO Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi told Qatar News Agency that repairs to the two trains would take three years.
Amir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attributed export interruptions to the Strait of Hormuz closure and damage at Ras Laffan’s energy complex. He said Qatar supplies about one-fifth of global LNG trade and that disruptions affected markets and consumers beyond the country. The Amir also said non-hydrocarbon activity was growing and made up about 80% of real GDP, while the North Field expansion was advancing as expected.
The National reported that S&P expects delays to the North Field expansion and considers an extended disruption to LNG production or exports a risk to Qatar’s outlook. The Peninsula reported that Al Kaabi expects the first North Field East train to begin production in the first half of 2027.
