Quotes from Capital Economics:
- Markets have initially interpreted the minutes of the late January FOMC meeting as dovish, but it is not entirely clear that is the message FOMC officials want to convey.
- Markets appear to be focusing on the following passage: "Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time."
- Confusingly, that could either mean a longer time than markets currently expect (hence the rally in the Treasury market) or it could mean for a longer time than in a normal economic cycle. If it's the latter, it is hardly news. After all, if the Fed was following its pre-crisis reaction function (Taylor rule), the fed funds rate would already be north of 2%. To our minds, the use of the past tense "had inclined" pushes us more towards that latter interpretation. Either way, it is very poorly worded.
- The other thing that comes across in the minutes is that Fed officials are petrified that dropping its "patient" language will trigger a sharp reaction in markets. The minutes suggest that officials are looking at some form of alternative guidance that would stress the data dependence of the timing of the first rate hike instead.
- For now, we still expect the Fed to drop "patient" in March and to begin hiking rates in June.
