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Trading in AI-Linked Default Swaps Averages Over $9 Billion a Week

The September average was more than four times July’s level. The contracts reference seven companies, including Oracle, Alphabet and Nvidia.

Updated 2 min read
Office towers line Broadway in Midtown Manhattan, New York, beneath an overcast autumn sky. (AI-generated image / EconoTimes)
Office towers line Broadway in Midtown Manhattan, New York, beneath an overcast autumn sky. (AI-generated image / EconoTimes)

Trading in credit default swaps linked to seven AI companies averaged more than $9 billion a week in September, Morgan Stanley Research figures show, as companies sought financing for AI facilities.

The average was less than $2 billion a week in July, making the September level more than four times as high. The contracts reference Oracle, SpaceX, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Broadcom and Nvidia.

A credit default swap can protect its buyer against losses if a specified credit event affects the borrower named in the contract. Buyers pay for that protection. The weekly dollar figure measures trading activity, not the premium or quoted price of coverage.

Oracle’s additional data-center lease commitments illustrate the scale of spending behind the buildout. The company listed $288 billion in future commitments, substantially all tied to data centers, beyond the leases recorded on its Aug. 31, 2026, balance sheet. Those commitments are future leases, not debt already issued.

For the three months ended Aug. 31, Oracle reported $23.103 billion in operating cash flow and $28.499 billion in capital expenditures, leaving free cash flow negative by $5.396 billion. The company said the additional leases generally are expected to begin between its fiscal second quarter of 2027 and fiscal 2029.

Reuters reported that default-protection spreads for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia had reached records by Oct. 15, citing data from LSEG and S&P Global Market Intelligence. A spread measures the quoted cost of protection, separately from trading volume. CNBC reported that Oracle’s five-year swap quote reached 295 basis points on Oct. 19.

In the wider market, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association said the notional amount of index credit derivatives traded rose 18.5% from a year earlier to $12.5 trillion in the first half of 2026. Its report also showed a decline in corporate single-name credit default swap activity. The index figure covers a broader market than Morgan Stanley’s seven-company tally.

Oracle has scheduled its fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings release for Dec. 14.

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