A U.S. license allowing Russian diesel sales could improve exporters’ shipping terms, but analysts say its effect on fuel prices hinges on how much additional product Russia delivers.
The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) authorized transactions involving the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian diesel, including imports into the United States, through 12:01 a.m. EDT on April 7, 2027. The license excludes debits to specified Russian state accounts at U.S. financial institutions.
After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump said Oct. 9 that Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons immediately, another 500,000 tons in November 2026 and one million tons immediately afterward. He made a further three million tons conditional on the state of Russian refineries and gave no delivery date for that amount. His announcement did not specify whether the figures referred to metric or U.S. short tons.
Energy analytics firm Kpler estimated that the United States exported about 1.4 million barrels of diesel a day in October. One Kpler analysis said Russia had enough fuel for the first announced volumes; another pointed to idle refinery capacity and shipping risks as constraints on a larger increase. Deliveries that add to global supply could ease market tightness, Kpler said.
Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argued that cheaper shipping could improve Russian companies’ export returns even if the arrangement adds little fuel to the market. Vakulenko wrote that diesel had continued leaving Russia by sea despite export restrictions. Vakulenko estimated that companies could gain $30-$40 per ton of product in the best case, while the state budget could receive tax revenue from potentially higher profits.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) recorded an average on-highway diesel price of $6.179 a gallon in its Oct. 12 survey. Its October outlook cited higher crude prices and wider refining margins; East Coast distillate inventories in September were 32% below their five-year seasonal average. The outlook’s inputs were finalized Oct. 1, before Trump’s announcement. Vakulenko said high diesel margins benefit U.S. refiners, while freight and agricultural businesses bear higher fuel costs.
The EIA’s next weekly diesel price release is scheduled for Oct. 20.
