U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, easing from September but topping one forecast, as the result matched the core-inflation level Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller cited for considering a larger December increase.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Nov. 10 that its seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) had advanced 0.4% from September; the previous monthly increase was 0.6%. CMC Markets had forecast a 0.3% headline rise and a 0.2% core gain before the release.
With food and energy excluded, prices increased 0.3% from September, marking a third consecutive month at that rate. On a seasonally adjusted basis, energy’s monthly increase eased to 0.7% from 5.2% in September. Food prices rose 0.5%, while shelter increased 0.3%; BLS said shelter contributed more than 30% of the all-items index’s monthly advance.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its target range at 3.75% to 4% on Oct. 28 in a 10-2 vote. Both dissenting members preferred a 0.25-percentage-point increase. In a speech delivered before the CPI figures, Waller said he favored a quarter-point rise in December even if inflation improved. He also said a half-point increase should be considered if monthly core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher. Those were Waller’s views, not a new committee decision.
BLS did not publish year-over-year changes for most October CPI measures because it lacked survey data for October 2025 after a lapse in appropriations, a data gap EconoTimes previously outlined. The agency did report monthly changes.
October producer-price data are scheduled for Friday, Nov. 13. The Fed’s next rate decision is due Dec. 9, followed by the November CPI report on Dec. 10.
