The Case-Shiller National and Composite 20 indexes remained below their inflation-adjusted 2022 peaks in August, even as both nominal measures set records, CalculatedRisk author Bill McBride said.
After applying the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) to account for inflation, McBride calculated that the National Index was 3.9% below its 2022 high, while Composite 20 was 3.6% short of its own peak. Both measures edged down in August. The month’s release came 51 months after real house prices reached their most recent high.
The inflation-adjusted National measure was 8.3% above its housing-bubble peak, and Composite 20 stood 0.5% above that benchmark. McBride also put the National Index’s seasonally adjusted nominal reading 81.1% over the bubble-era high. Both nominal indexes registered records in August; the real figures adjust for consumer-price changes.
McBride’s newsletter summary also placed its price-to-rent index 11% below its 2022 high. He illustrated how inflation changes comparisons over time with a hypothetical: a home priced at $300,000 in January 2010 would correspond to $461,000 at the time of his analysis, a 54% increase after adjustment.
EconoTimes previously covered McBride’s home-price-to-income measures, which compare home values with wages and household income. The current analysis instead adjusts price indexes for inflation.
McBride wrote that rising inventory and higher mortgage rates, which he linked to softer demand, pointed to prices staying mostly flat nationally in nominal terms in 2026 and falling further after inflation.
He said real home prices can take several years to reach new highs after a sharp rise. The seven-year framing in his earlier discussion was shorthand, not a fixed timetable, he cautioned.
