An Ipsos poll for Reuters found that 47% of registered voters said the cost of living would carry the greatest weight in their midterm decision, while October consumer surveys offered mixed readings on confidence.
The poll, conducted Aug. 28-31 among 1,167 U.S. adults, also found 71% disapproved of President Donald Trump’s handling of living costs and 22% approved. A separate CNBC poll put Trump’s economic approval at 34%, according to earlier EconoTimes coverage of the survey.
The University of Michigan’s final October Index of Consumer Sentiment was 48.0, down 0.2% from September’s 48.1 and 10.4% below its year-earlier level. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7 from 84.2. The readings use separate survey designs and scoring systems, so their headline values are not directly comparable. The Conference Board said confidence had increased only among consumers under 35 and households with incomes of $100,000 or more on a six-month moving-average basis.
A separate University of Michigan report drew on 2,129 interviews conducted Aug. 25-Oct. 19. Tariffs came up without prompting in about one-third of interviews; 40% of respondents raised fuel prices, and more than one in eight mentioned the Iran conflict. The survey did not measure candidate preferences or planned votes.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 3.7% over the 12 months through September and gasoline prices increased 9.1% that month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Real average hourly earnings fell 0.7%, seasonally adjusted, over the year through September. The unemployment rate was 4.2% and payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September. The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated real gross domestic product grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter.
The Michigan report compared this cycle with 2022, when consumer sentiment also reached historic lows in the months before Election Day. In both periods, consumers put living costs among their leading personal-finance concerns, the report said, while noting differences in geopolitical events, the pandemic’s preceding effects and inflation trends. In its October commentary, University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said, “Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy.”
Tuesday, Nov. 3, voters will decide which party holds a majority in each chamber of Congress for the next two years. The next preliminary Michigan sentiment reading is scheduled for Friday, Nov. 6, at 10 a.m. ET. The October inflation and real-earnings releases are due Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
