U.S. developers have expanded plans for fossil-fuel power plants despite lower modeled generation costs for new wind and solar projects, a shift researchers say could raise customer costs compared with a clean-power buildout.
An inventory by the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy puts 68 gigawatts of fossil capacity on developers’ schedules for service from 2026 through 2030. That is up from 47 gigawatts scheduled for the same period at the end of 2025. Natural gas accounts for nearly all the fossil capacity in the latest plans.
The groups’ second-quarter 2026 snapshot covers roughly 285 gigawatts of U.S. projects in planning or construction, including batteries. Fossil-fuel facilities account for about 30%, while clean power makes up most of the inventory. The figures measure planned and under-construction nameplate capacity, not completed additions or electricity currently being generated.
Lazard’s 2026 estimates put average unsubsidized generation costs at $68 per megawatt-hour for new onshore wind, $69 for utility-scale solar and $90 for combined-cycle gas. The wind and solar averages have risen since 2025. Lazard estimates $109 per megawatt-hour for solar paired with storage. Its generation-cost figures exclude some transmission and distribution spending and do not show what customers will pay.
The Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy linked the shift in plans partly to expected growth in electricity use and federal policy changes affecting renewable projects. Their report also points to planning methods that favor power sources able to run when called upon. In its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity use rising 25% to 50% between 2025 and 2050. Depending on the scenario, data center servers and electric vehicles make up 50% to 80% of that increase.
The groups said a buildout weighted toward fossil plants could cost electricity customers more than a clean-power pathway. Their report puts fossil plants’ share of new U.S. capacity at about 70% in 2010 and 5% in 2024.
If developers meet their current schedules, fossil plants could account for about 70% of capacity entering service in 2030, the groups estimated. Turbine shortages and uncertainty about future demand could prevent some planned fossil projects from being built.
