Deloitte's 2026 Holiday Retail Survey shows the average U.S. household plans $1,654 in holiday spending this season, 4% above 2025, while goods gain ground and activity outlays shrink.
Plans average $988 for retail goods, up 10% year over year, and $666 for activities, down 4%. Deloitte's activities measure covers travel, events and hosting at home. The survey captures spending intentions, not purchases already made.
A 79% majority expect holiday-item prices to exceed 2025 levels. Deloitte classifies shoppers who use at least five of seven cost-saving behaviors as “holiday value seekers.” They make up 38% of respondents and plan to spend 12% more on average than other shoppers.
Planned spending also varies by income. Households earning $200,000 or more expect to spend an average of $3,607, compared with $693 for households earning under $50,000.
Deloitte expects Gen Z and millennials to account for 50% of holiday spending, a first in the firm's annual survey. Both groups plan double-digit spending increases from a year earlier.
Experience gifts feature in half of shoppers' plans, compared with 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024. Among those planning an experience gift, 79% also expect to include a physical item. The survey asks about experience gifts separately from its activities-spending measure.
Separately, Deloitte forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion from November 2026 through January 2027, up 4.0% to 4.8% from the same period in 2025. That national sales forecast is distinct from the survey's household spending plans. An independent research panel collected online responses from 4,000 U.S. consumers between Aug. 26 and Sept. 10, 2026. Deloitte reports a full-sample margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Deloitte's survey places the share of shoppers active at 77% in late November and 78% in early December.
