U.S. households kept their near-term inflation outlook unchanged in October, while a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found greater concern about unemployment and personal job loss alongside improved job-finding expectations.
The median one-year inflation expectation was 3.9%, unchanged from September. The median readings for three and five years ahead also held at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively.
Respondents put the average odds of the U.S. unemployment rate increasing within a year at 45.3%, a 1.4-percentage-point gain and the highest reading since April 2020. That figure is the perceived likelihood of an increase in the national rate, not a prediction that unemployment itself will reach 45.3%. Respondents without a college degree accounted for the rise in that expectation.
Concern about individual job security also edged upward: the mean probability of losing a current job within 12 months reached 13.9%, up 0.4 percentage point and below the 14.3% 12-month trailing average. Respondents also assigned a greater chance to finding another job after a loss. That average stood at 46.5%, up 0.4 percentage point and its highest reading since November 2025.
The median increase households expected in gas prices over a year declined by 0.6 percentage point to 4.2%, though the expectation remained positive. Expected household income growth slipped 0.1 percentage point to 3%, while expected spending growth fell 0.2 percentage point to 5.3%. The net share reporting better finances than a year earlier increased, while expectations for finances a year ahead were roughly unchanged.
The New York Fed conducted the nationally representative internet survey from Oct. 1 through Oct. 31 with a rotating panel of about 1,300 household heads. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) scheduled its October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The New York Fed’s next Survey of Consumer Expectations release is scheduled for Dec. 7.
