Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) closed at $81.71 on Wednesday, Oct. 28, ahead of the release of September U.S. inflation data. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published the report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, showing the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.6% from a year earlier and 0.5% from August.
The annual headline result matched the 3.6% forecast reported by the Associated Press before the release. But the monthly increase accelerated from 0.3% in August. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% from August and 3.1% over the year. The Fed’s longer-run inflation goal is 2% as measured by annual PCE inflation.
For CRCL, the data does not give a simple bullish or bearish signal. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct. 28, after raising it by 0.25 percentage point in September. Two officials dissented in October in favor of another quarter-point increase. The committee said inflation remained elevated.
Circle’s latest quarterly filing shows how rates feed into its results. Reserve income rose $128.1 million, or 10.7%, in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier. Circle attributed about $348 million of growth to increased average daily USD Coin (USDC) circulation, while a 66-basis-point fall in average yields reduced reserve income by about $220 million.
The filing says higher rates raise reserve return rates, but it also cautions that changes in USDC circulation, customer behavior and distribution costs make the effect on net reserve income difficult to predict. That leaves the inflation report as a piece of the outlook rather than a stand-alone share-price forecast. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8-9.
