The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) estimated September’s seasonally adjusted annual pace for U.S. new-home sales at 676,000, while both reported declines were statistically inconclusive.
Estimated sales were 0.6% lower than August’s revised rate of 680,000 and 5.3% below the 714,000 pace in September 2025. The Census Bureau said the 90% confidence intervals for both comparisons included zero, leaving insufficient statistical evidence to establish either decline.
The agencies estimated that 476,000 new homes were for sale at the end of September, 1% fewer than August’s 481,000. The estimated 2.3% decrease from 487,000 a year earlier was not statistically significant. At September’s sales rate, the inventory represented 8.4 months of supply, compared with 8.5 months in August and 8.2 months a year earlier.
The median price was estimated at $400,400. That was 3.9% above August’s revised $385,400 and 3.9% below $416,800 a year earlier, but neither change was statistically significant.
In an analysis for Calculated Risk, Bill McBride said supply was above a normal range of about four to six months. He attributed part of the median price’s 13% gap from its peak to changes in the mix of homes sold. The Census Bureau says median-price movements can also reflect shifts in the regions and sizes of homes sold, as well as price changes for comparable homes.
McBride reported that 115,000 homes for sale had not begun construction, a series record. Completed homes for sale totaled 111,000, more than three times the record low of 31,000 in February 2022. He also cited a record-high supply of 12.2 months in January 2009 and a record low of 3.3 months in August 2020.
The Census Bureau scheduled its October new-home-sales release for Nov. 25, 2026.
