The UK could fall £410 million short of its 2027 official development assistance target, a Center for Global Development (CGD) analysis says, putting aid allocations in focus ahead of this week’s budget.
The target is to spend 0.3% of gross national income (GNI) on official development assistance (ODA). CGD’s central estimate is £410 million, with its scenarios ranging from £250 million to £580 million.
The calculation draws on HM Treasury’s September comparison of independent forecasts. It is CGD’s estimate based on those forecasts, rather than a government projection of the shortfall.
CGD said higher-than-expected inflation lifted projected nominal GNI above the baseline used in the spending review. Because the aid target is tied to GNI, the revised projection changes the amount needed to meet the 0.3% threshold.
A 2025 policy change also removed the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s automatic role in making final adjustments to ODA spending, CGD said. The group noted that the office had previously delayed aid spending to stay aligned with GNI targets, while saying the current circumstances differ.
CGD researchers warned that missing the target could mean deeper aid cuts affecting communities in Africa. The group argues that adding about £400 million could halve cuts it says may cost thousands of lives.
CGD urged ministers to consider allocating more money to aid in the upcoming budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s updated forecast is due Oct. 28, according to the group.
