Duncan Capps, the United Kingdom’s interim Border Security Commander, warned lawmakers Wednesday, Oct. 21, that smugglers’ shift toward Normandy could lengthen Channel crossings and expose migrants to deadly winter conditions.
Capps cited larger, more crowded boats as a concern. He told the House of Commons Home Affairs Committee that a boat carrying 230 migrants had been seen this year and warned that a mass-casualty event was “only a matter of time.”
Capps put the Normandy route at nearly 60 nautical miles and said attempting it in winter could cause loss of life. He said smugglers were moving launch preparations toward Normandy to reduce the risk of interception as they transported boats to departure points.
The National Crime Agency said in a Sept. 15 assessment that small-boat arrivals in the first half of 2026 were 41% below the same period in 2025, while the number of boats fell 47%. The agency pointed to limited boat and engine supplies, disruption of smuggling networks and French efforts to prevent launches as factors in the decline. It said changes in demand may also have played a part.
Separate Home Office operational figures recorded no arrivals from Oct. 14-20; the department says the figures are provisional. In the week ending Oct. 11, the Home Office recorded 1,066 arrivals on 15 boats and 245 people prevented from crossing. It says the prevention figures are operational estimates supplied by French authorities.
Eurojust reported that 33 migrants were aboard a boat that sank on the night of Nov. 23-24, 2021. Twenty-seven were confirmed drowned, four remained missing and two survived. Eurojust also reported that a Paris court convicted the smuggling network’s ringleader and five others of manslaughter in September 2026. Capps did not specify whether his mass-casualty warning referred to a particular scale of disaster or a defined period.
Capps said he aims to work with French partners over the next two to three months to close the Normandy route.
