UK CPI inflation likely turned negative in April

April's consumer prices figures (09.30 BST) look set to show that, after holding steady at zero in March, CPI inflation turned negative in April. Admittedly, petrol prices rose by nearly 2% in April. 

But changes to alcohol, tobacco and other duties that took effect in April are likely to have depressed inflation. In addition, the earlier timing of Easter Sunday this year (5th) than last (20th) is likely to have helped to reduce inflation temporarily. 

"The ONS records prices in the middle of the month, and prices for some items are higher over Easter. As a result, a 'normal' level of prices in April 2015 will be compared to an Easter-boosted level in April 2014. Accordingly, we forecast a fall in CPI inflation to minus 0.1% in April." - said Capital Economics