Sterling gained Tuesday after UK unemployment eased to 4.7%, Reuters reported, but a fall in vacancies left a mixed picture for the Bank of England before its Nov. 5 rate decision.
Reuters put the pound at $1.3347 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.3%, in a 7:48 a.m. EDT (11:48 UTC) market snapshot. Reuters separately reported that futures prices implied a near-certain 0.25-percentage-point increase at the Bank of England’s Nov. 5 meeting.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said unemployment among people aged 16 and older fell 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter in June to August. The employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 rose 0.2 point to 75.3%. The agency cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from short-term changes in its household survey.
A provisional estimate put the number of UK employees on payrolls at 30.3 million in September, up 13,000 from August but down 66,000 from a year earlier. The readings add to the split between household and payroll measures evident in recent UK employment data.
The ONS estimated 691,000 vacancies in July to September, down 21,000 from the previous quarter. Outside the pandemic period, the last comparable reading at or below that level was in July to September 2014. The agency said responses from smaller firms suggested higher labor costs may be restraining recruitment, and described the labor market overall as broadly flat.
In Great Britain, annual growth in regular average weekly earnings was 3.7% in June to August. Growth in total earnings, including bonuses, slowed to 3.7% from 3.9% in the previous three-month period. Regular pay growth was 3.0% in the private sector and 6.3% in the public sector; the ONS said the timing of public-sector pay awards affected the comparison.
In September, six members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, while three preferred an increase to 4%. Lloyds senior UK economist Nikesh Sawjani told Reuters the latest jobs data reinforced expectations of a November increase but did not, by themselves, make a compelling case for a more aggressive path afterward.
The ONS is scheduled to release September inflation figures Oct. 21. The Bank of England’s next rate decision is Nov. 5.
