Britain’s next round of jobs, inflation, borrowing and retail data will arrive before Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey’s Oct. 28 Budget, offering a fresh read on economic pressures.
The borrowing report could shape the government’s view of its fiscal room. The Press Association review expects borrowing to be below its level at the same point last year but above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast. Public-sector debt remained below £3 trillion, the review reported, and stood at 93.8% of gross domestic product at the end of August, a lower share than a year earlier.
The OBR is due to issue a new forecast on Budget day. If it raises its estimate for borrowing in 2026-27, Healey could have less room to respond to economic risks, the PA review says.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) put annual consumer inflation at 2.6% in June, 2.9% in July and 3.1% in August. The PA review says September’s rate may climb again, with fuel and energy costs amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine contributing to pressure. Inflation was still well below its 11.1% peak during the 2022-23 cost-of-living crisis, the review noted.
September’s inflation readings can inform increases in some taxes and other costs. The Treasury has not confirmed whether it will use them to set increases for the financial year starting next April. The PA review also says rising fuel, energy and grocery costs are adding pressure for shoppers.
Recent ONS estimates put unemployment at 4.9%, compared with 5.2% at the beginning of 2026. The PA review says labor-market figures have been difficult to assess for several years because of concerns about the survey’s size. The upcoming release will also include wages, job vacancies and economic inactivity.
Online shopping and department stores helped lift sales in August after July’s fall in sales volume, according to the PA review. It says September sales could weaken as fuel, energy and grocery costs rise.
Labor-market data are due Tuesday, Oct. 20, followed by inflation and borrowing figures Wednesday, Oct. 21. September retail sales are scheduled for Oct. 23, five days before Healey presents the Budget.
