UK economic recovery increasingly dependent on consumers
There was little of comfort in the latest UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey. The PMI fell from 54.0 to 51.9 in April, its lowest level since last September. The decline reflected the plunge in the output balance from 5…
There was little of comfort in the latest UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey. The PMI fell from 54.0 to 51.9 in April, its lowest level since last September. The decline reflected the plunge in the output balance from 57.4 to 52.9 - a level consistent on the basis of past form with stagnation in the official measure of manufacturing output.
However, there were some better signs from the latest money and credit data. Annual growth rate in MPC's preferred measure of bank lending (M4 lending excluding intermediate OFCs and the effects of securitisations) picked up from 1.9% to 2.9% in March - its strongest rate since July 2008.
The combination of the deterioration of the Markit/CIPS report on manufacturing but improvement in the lending figures highlighted that the economic recovery has become increasingly dependent on consumers.
"Fundamentally, the combination of record-low mortgage rates, high consumer confidence and strengthening earnings growth should ensure that mortgage lending picks up at a stronger rate this year." said Capital Economics
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