A threefold rise in international public finance for climate adaptation by 2035 would still cover less than a third of developing countries’ projected needs, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
A COP30 aspiration sought to triple international public finance by 2035. The agency estimates that, under that scenario, public funding would cover 20% to 29% of developing countries’ adaptation needs. Its annual estimate for developing countries’ adaptation needs is $305 billion by 2035.
Developed countries provided an estimated $28.2 billion to $31.7 billion in public adaptation finance in 2024. That range was approximately $1 billion above the prior year’s total. The funding estimate describes 2024 flows, while the $305 billion figure is a projection of annual needs for 2035.
The coverage estimate differs for least developed countries and small island developing states. UNEP says tripling finance could meet 49% to 84% of those groups’ needs, a higher share than the 20% to 29% estimated for developing countries overall. The range still indicates that the aspiration would leave some of their projected needs unmet.
Funding for the two groups, adjusted for inflation, had increased from its 2019 level by 2024 but remained below the level recorded in 2022. The figures show that even if the COP30 aspiration is met, the projected public contribution would not cover the full estimated adaptation bill.
