US$ further bearish in near term

The US dollar index is likely to extend down to 95.72/94.63 before renewed basing, while USD/JPY is recurring to its multi-month break of 119.30/119.38 support. USD/JPY weakness can extend to 118.15, potentially as far 116.46/115.56, before renewed basing. We reckon USD/JPY to correct further for strong support to bounce. EUR/GBP stair-step continues, US Treasury rolling bullish as fetches handsome yields.

The US dollar is set to correct further, however the long-term trend remains intact for a higher US dollar, with the USD Index targeting 106.00, while USD/JPY targets 124.16/124.59. Meanwhile, EUR/Pound is continuing its stair-step higher for 0.7405/0.7429. Bears need an impulsive break below 0.7304/0.7295 to point to a top and bearish turn in trend.

The most profitable trading strategies based on trend and tend to have fairly simple rules. They are often more effective when hard stop losses are not used, and time or volatility based stops are used in their place. The EUR/USD seems an unusual trend, it takes its time about doing it. It often ranges a lot within its trends. This Pair dives below 200-HMA in Europe's morning on Greek jitters, choppy action likely to persist. It looks to enter in the direction of the longer-term trend after a pull-back that exhibits momentum.

USDJPY pair has placed a fourth consecutive up day, reaching a nine-day peak of 120.09. The dollar has breached above 20-, 50 and 200-day moving averages this week, though bigger-picture momentum still looks fairly flat, with the pair having been in a broadly sideways trading pattern which has been roughly centered on 120.00.