Although initial jobless claims have been relatively stable in recent weeks, continuing claims have declined rapidly, falling 160k or 6.6% from the survey week in March. The employment diffusion index has also stabilized after falling from the November high.
For the April US employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, May 8, Barclays expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 250k, private payrolls to increase by 245k, and government payrolls to rise by 5k.
This would be a substantial rebound after the weak March payroll report and leave the three-month average pace of payroll growth at 213k. Factors supporting a rebound in job growth include trends in jobless claims and the employment diffusion report.
"Elsewhere in the report, we look for the unemployment rate to decline by 0.1pp to 5.4%, for average hourly earnings to rise by 0.3% m/m (2.4% y/y), and for average weekly hours to hold steady at 34.5 hours." says Barclays Capital
