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Today US GDP will be released at 12:30 GMT. Fate of the dollar and treasuries depend heavily on the number.
- After last week's FOMC commentary it has been cleared that the rate hike path including the first will be heavily data dependent and GDP is one of the key indicators that FED officials will be focusing on.
Past trends -
- US has so far been on solid growth path, rising 5% and 4.6% in previous two quarters. Annual growth rate in GDP stands above 2%. Last year's performance in US GDP fueled rate hike bets by US Federal Reserve (FED) in 2015. However recent data points at somewhat weakening.
Expectation today -
- Market is expecting a number around 2.4%, as surveyed by Bloomberg. However it might falter as other economic dockets have weakened.
Market impact -
- Today's data is expected to impact all the market segment and may give rise to higher volatilities.
- Dollar and yields will strengthen sharply, should the data surprise on the upside. Nevertheless, if data comes in line with expectation it will still be price supportive of dollar as well as yields.
- Weaker data might push the dollar on bearish side, however extreme bearishness is unlikely. However it will increase the volatility further as market would be more divided over FED rate hike.
