The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that Americans in the middle fifth by income face an average $1,700 net cost increase in 2026 as higher prices and health costs outweigh tax benefits.
The institute’s October model puts the average net cost increase at $750 for the poorest fifth and the average net benefit at $12,560 for the richest 1% by income. It combines changes under a 2025 tax law, the expiration of expanded Affordable Care Act premium tax credits and prices that rose more than an earlier federal forecast anticipated. The figures are modeled group averages; they do not track changes in individual households’ finances.
A separate Federal Reserve estimate shows that households in the top 1% by net worth held 32.5% of U.S. household wealth in the second quarter of 2026, up from 31.7% in the first quarter. Their combined net worth rose $5.48 trillion to $60.31 trillion. The share held by households between the 50th and 90th wealth percentiles fell from 29.5% to 28.8%. The Fed ranks households by wealth, while the institute ranks them by income, so the groups need not contain the same people.
Health insurance accounts for part of the pressure in the institute’s estimate. Expanded Affordable Care Act premium tax credits expired at the end of 2025. KFF found that the average monthly payment after tax credits among consumers selecting marketplace plans rose 58%, from $113 in 2025 to $178 in 2026. It also estimated that enrollment in the broader individual insurance market, including coverage bought outside the marketplaces, fell by more than 4.6 million between June 2025 and June 2026. KFF said the decline occurred alongside the credit expiration and other policy changes.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers estimated that tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to annual inflation by February 2026 across a sample of 67 non-oil consumer goods categories. The institute separately used inflation above an earlier forecast in calculating its cost figures. That comparison cannot isolate the effect of any one administration policy.
In a Pew Research Center survey conducted Aug. 24-30, 2026, 61% of U.S. adults said economic inequality was too high, including 42% of Republicans and Republican-leaning respondents. KFF said individual-market enrollment may decline further as people miss premium payments later in 2026.
