U.S. Q2 GDP tracking 3.8% after quarterly services survey

The Census Bureau released the Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) this morning for Q2 2015, providing a closer look into revenues and expenses for many service sector industries. The BEA uses portions of this survey to revise its estimates of services consumption and intellectual property investment from the second to the third estimate of GDP. The second estimate of Q2 GDP reported that real private consumption grew 3.1% (q/q saar), with goods consumption growth of 5.5% and services spending up 2.0%.

The QSS data released this morning suggest that total services consumption grew modestly faster than the BEA reported in its second estimate of GDP. The Census survey data suggest that real consumption growth is likely to be revised up to 3.4% in the third estimate of Q2 GDP, driven by better-than-expected spending on healthcare and other services. Elsewhere, the QSS data used to estimate software investment were below the BEA's second estimate, implying a downward revision to intellectual property investment.

"On net, our Q2 GDP tracking estimate rose one-tenth, to 3.8%. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 2.5%", says Barclays.