The U.S. government expects to borrow $618 billion in net marketable debt from private investors during the October–December quarter, the U.S. Department of the Treasury said on Nov. 2.
The estimate is $10 billion below the August forecast, the department said in its Nov. 2 statement, “Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates.” A higher starting cash balance accounted for most of the reduction.
Lower projected net cash flows partly offset that effect, the department said. Without the higher starting cash balance, its borrowing estimate for the quarter would have been $24 billion above the August forecast.
The department based its fourth-quarter borrowing estimate on an assumed cash balance of $850 billion at the end of December. That compares with the $984 billion it held when the quarter began.
For January–March 2027, the department expects to borrow $800 billion, with an assumed cash balance of $1 trillion at the end of March. Both quarterly estimates cover net borrowing through securities that investors can trade.
The department also gave actual borrowing and cash figures for July–September, allowing a comparison with its August estimates. It borrowed $742 billion during that quarter and finished September with $984 billion in cash.
In August, the department had projected borrowing of $739 billion for July–September and a cash balance of $950 billion at the end of September. Its actual cash balance therefore exceeded the assumption used in that forecast.
The department attributed the higher borrowing primarily to the larger cash balance at the quarter’s close. Higher net cash flows partly offset the additional borrowing associated with that balance, it said.
Excluding the effect of the higher closing cash balance, actual July–September borrowing was $30 billion below the August estimate, the department said. That comparison removes the cash-balance effect from the borrowing outcome.
The department’s borrowing measure excludes the replacement of maturing Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve’s portfolio. It includes financing needed when the Federal Reserve allows those securities to mature without replacing them.
Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury securities in the secondary market do not directly change the measure, the department said. Such purchases can affect the cash raised when the securities later mature, depending on the Federal Reserve’s actions.
The department said it does not expect debt buybacks to materially affect net marketable borrowing because new issuance replaces the securities purchased. It will release further quarterly financing details at 8:30 a.m. on Nov. 4.