US jobless claims remain at historically low levels as 2015 ends

Initial jobless claims rose to 287k in the week ending December 26, in line with the forecast (290k) and marginally above consensus expectations (270k). The four-week moving average rose to 277k (previous: 273k). While there was nothing unusual in the state-level data, the jump could have been caused by the volatility introduced when the numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations, a Labor Department said. This statement is consistent with the view that the weekly jump was driven primarily by the pre-announced seasonal factors and does not reflect deterioration in labor markets.

Consistent with this view, continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 19 rose only 3k, to 2.198mn. The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose modestly, to 2.220mn (previous: 2.211mn).

Despite the modest rise in initial claims towards year-end, both initial and continuing jobless claims improved considerably in 2015 and both series remain at or near their lowest levels since the early 1970s.

"These data indicate that, at least from the separations side, the labor market remained strong to the very end of the year. We look for further improvements next year; we expect monthly employment growth to average close to 200k in 2016 and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.3% by end of the year", says Barclays.