U.S. jobless rate likely to have remained stable at 4.2 pct, says Barclays

The employment report for the month of October for the U.S. is expected to show a solid improvement in hiring after September data were suppressed by hurricane-related effects. Following a decline of 33k last month, the storms are estimated to have reduced growth in payroll employment by around 200k. According to a Barclays’ research report, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have risen by 325k.

The forecast is in line with a quick retracement of storm-related effects that is in line with the signal from initial jobless claims and, indirectly, from other activity data that showed a quicker-than-expected bounce-back in activity. Almost all of this improvement should come in private sector employment, and private payrolls are expected to have been risen by 320k, with the remainder coming in government payrolls, stated Barclays.

In private employment, services employment is likely to have rebounded considerably. Elsewhere, the jobless rate is expected to have remained stable at 4.2 percent, while the average hourly earnings are likely to have risen 0.2 percent sequentially.

“We view at least part of last month’s 0.5% m/m rise in hourly earnings as distorted by storm-related factors that either held back hours for salaried employees or reduced the number of hourly workers from the survey”, added Barclays.

At 12:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was highly bullish at 139.114. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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