None of four US recession gauges signaled an alarm as of Nov. 12, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the US Labor Department.
All four carried a green classification. The measures covered the gap between long-term and short-term Treasury yields, changes in unemployment, the unemployment rate itself and applications for unemployment benefits.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stood at positive 0.24 percentage point, the St. Louis Fed figures showed. The spread measures the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield, so a positive reading puts the longer-term yield above the shorter-term one.
The yield-curve gauge uses inversion as its dividing line: the spread turns negative when the 10-year yield falls below the 2-year yield. Its current reading was on the positive side of that boundary.
The curve had spent zero days inverted over the two-year period covered by the figures. That historical count accompanied the current positive spread, with both carrying a normal classification.
The Sahm rule stood at 0.00 percentage point in the central bank's figures, below the supplied recession-signal threshold of a reading above 0.5 percentage point. It measures how far three-month average unemployment rises above its lowest three-month average over the preceding year.
A reading above that threshold has historically coincided with the start of a recession. At zero, the current reading showed no gap between the three-month average and the lowest comparable average over the preceding year.
The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, matching its one-year low, the Labor Department figures showed. The supplied comparison put the difference at zero percentage points, giving this gauge a green classification too.
No separate numerical alarm threshold was supplied for the unemployment rate. The available benchmark was its one-year low, rather than a specified rate or increase that would trigger a recession signal.
The four-week average of initial jobless claims stood at 195,000 in the department's figures. That measure averages new applications for unemployment benefits over four weeks. It was unchanged from its one-year low, a difference of 0%.
No numerical recession threshold was supplied for claims either. As with unemployment, the available comparison placed the current reading at its one-year low and classified the gauge as green.
The four readings therefore showed no alarms under the supplied classifications on the reference date. They describe where the gauges stood at that point, without establishing whether a recession will follow or whether one has been avoided.
