None of four US recession gauges flashed an alarm as of Oct. 22, according to figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the US Labor Department.
All four carried green readings. The Treasury yield spread remained above the level at which it turns negative, while the Sahm rule stood below its recession signal threshold.
The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread stood at a positive 0.31 percentage point, the St. Louis Fed's FRED data showed. The gauge compares the yields on Treasury securities with those two maturities.
An inverted yield curve occurs when the 10-year yield falls below the 2-year yield, turning the spread negative. Its dividing line is zero, putting the current reading 0.31 percentage point above inversion.
The curve had spent no days inverted over the past two years. The positive reading therefore accompanied a two-year stretch without an inversion on this measure.
The Sahm rule stood at 0.00 percentage point in the central bank's data, against a recession signal threshold above 0.5 percentage point. Its current value was half a percentage point below that boundary.
The rule measures how far three-month average unemployment has risen above its lowest three-month average over the past year. Readings above 0.5 percentage point have historically coincided with the start of a recession.
The unemployment rate was 4.2%, just 0.1 percentage point above its one-year low, the Labor Department's figures showed. That comparison placed the rate close to its lowest level over the preceding year.
The four-week average of initial jobless claims stood at 198,000 in the department's figures. It was unchanged from its one-year low, a gap of 0%.
The unemployment rate and claims average both carried green readings, but no numerical alarm threshold was specified for either measure. Their distances from their one-year lows were comparisons, rather than specified recession triggers.
The four readings describe where the gauges stood on the reference date. None constitutes a forecast that a recession will occur or a determination that one has been avoided.
