A lower U.S. corn harvest forecast and reduced projected corn and soybean ending stocks accompanied gains in grain futures Tuesday, as the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest estimates pointed to tighter 2026/27 supplies.
The Nov. 10 report, USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), put corn production at 15.893 billion bushels, 141 million below October. The yield outlook fell to 179.6 bushels per acre from 181.2, while harvested area remained at 88.5 million acres.
USDA projected corn ending stocks at 1.758 billion bushels, down from 1.849 billion in October. It reduced its export forecast by 25 million bushels to 3.275 billion and its forecast for feed and residual use by the same amount, to 5.975 billion.
For soybeans, the department raised production to 4.574 billion bushels from 4.562 billion and increased the yield estimate to 53.3 bushels per acre. It lifted expected exports by 25 million bushels to 1.720 billion, citing larger supplies and the early-season export pace, while lowering projected ending stocks to 300 million from 315 million.
Reuters reported that its analyst poll average for soybean production was 23 million bushels above USDA’s estimate. The agency’s forecast nevertheless increased from October. Reuters also said analysts had expected soybean ending stocks to rise by 16 million bushels, while USDA projected a 15-million-bushel decline.
Reuters said corn and soybean futures rose after the report. In its 1:25 p.m. ET (18:25 UTC) snapshot, January soybeans stood at $12.27¾ a bushel, up 39½ cents. December corn gained 11¼ cents to $4.50½ a bushel, while December wheat added 4½ cents to $5.92½ a bushel.
Reuters described corn and soybean prices as having fallen for an extended period since late September, with both markets at multi-month lows. The outlet also noted that USDA had raised its corn harvest outlook in October and forecast a record-large soybean crop.
The ending-stock figures cover the 2026/27 marketing year, which begins Sept. 1 for corn and soybeans. USDA’s next WASDE report is scheduled for Dec. 10 at noon ET.
