President Donald Trump rallied for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas on Oct. 19 as a federal forecast pointed to higher U.S. farm costs and lower nominal income ahead of the midterm election.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected in its Sept. 3 release that farm production expenses would reach $492.8 billion in 2026, up $21.2 billion, or 4.5%, from its 2025 estimate. It expects fuel and oil expenses to rise 28.8% and expenses for fertilizer, lime and soil conditioners to increase 15.3%.
ERS forecast net farm income of $158.4 billion, a 2.6% decline in nominal dollars. Its separate net cash farm income measure is projected to rise 0.4% in nominal dollars to $176.4 billion. Adjusted for inflation, the agency expects the two measures to fall 5.5% and 2.5%, respectively. ERS issues national forecasts, so those figures do not describe Kansas farms specifically.
AAA data carried by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) put the national average retail diesel price at $6.33 per gallon on Oct. 16. That reading came after the Sept. 3 farm forecast. Kansas Farm Bureau President Glenn Brunkow told The Associated Press that higher costs hurt producers with little room to absorb them: “The margins are tight, and anything that cuts into that margin really hurts.”
Trump appeared at a Park City event listed by the Republican National Committee. Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton in the Nov. 3 Senate election.
The administration announced $12 billion in one-time farmer bridge payments in December 2025, including up to $11 billion for eligible row-crop producers. An Oct. 5 executive order directed the Treasury Department to determine whether certain federal diesel tax payments could be deferred. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) also announced federal penalty relief for dyed diesel sold or used on highways from Oct. 1 through Dec. 31. The federal relief does not change state fuel taxes or penalties.
ERS is scheduled to release its next farm income forecast Dec. 2 at 11 a.m. ET.
