U.S. ground beef averaged $7.062 per pound in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported, while federal forecasters raised import projections for 2026 and 2027 amid constrained domestic cattle supplies.
The average for all uncooked ground beef was 1.3% below August’s $7.158, but 6.3% above the September 2025 level.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its 2026 beef import estimate by 85 million pounds to 6.347 billion pounds in an Oct. 16 outlook. Its 2027 projection increased by 125 million pounds to 6.175 billion pounds.
The USDA estimated August imports at 520 million pounds, up 26% from a year earlier, and expected September shipments to remain high. It added 50 million pounds to its third-quarter projection, bringing it to 1.6 billion pounds. The fourth-quarter estimate rose by 35 million pounds to 1.45 billion pounds.
The agency linked the 2027 import increase to limited U.S. supplies and continued processor demand. It also cut its beef production projections for both years, citing expectations for fewer cattle to move through slaughter.
The USDA said firm boxed-beef prices and weaker slaughter-steer prices had supported packer margins. It said lower cull-cow prices appeared partly linked to increased availability of lower-cost imported lean trimmings.
Weekly federally inspected cow slaughter from January through September was the second-lowest in the USDA’s comparisons since 1950; only 2005 was lower. That year, restrictions limited imports of older Canadian cattle following bovine spongiform encephalopathy.
The October Cattle on Feed report is expected to include a breakdown for steers and heifers. The USDA’s next livestock outlook is scheduled for Nov. 17, 2026.
