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Unicredit: Technical setback for German new orders leaves upward trend intact

Quotes from Unicredit German new orders in the manufacturing sector declined 3.9% mom in January after plus 4.4% in the previous month. We think that there is no reason to worry. The latest drop does not have anything to…

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Quotes from Unicredit

  • German new orders in the manufacturing sector declined 3.9% mom in January after plus 4.4% in the previous month. We think that there is no reason to worry.
  • The latest drop does not have anything to do with a sudden deterioration in fundamentals. Instead, it is some kind of a technical breather after unusually strong rises in the previous few months. 

  • New orders excluding big-ticket items rallied in the fourth quarter 2014 (+3.6% qoq or +15% qoq annualized!). 

  • Tomorrow morning, the industrial production reading for January will be released.
  • We expect a significant rise of 0.8% mom in line with surging backlog orders. 

  • The odds are high that GDP growth in the first quarter will remain strong. We expect a plus of 0.4% qoq with some upside risks.

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