United Airlines' 2026 earnings outlook has fallen below its July forecast as a sharp rise in fuel spending weighs on results despite gains in passenger traffic and revenue.
United on Oct. 20 projected adjusted earnings of $0.50 to $1.50 a share for the fourth quarter. CNBC reported that even the top of that range would put full-year adjusted earnings at no more than $7.22 a share. United had forecast $9 to $11 a share in July.
For the fourth quarter, United projects an average fuel price of $4.80 a gallon, compared with $3.90 in the third quarter. Its fuel expense for the three months ended Sept. 30 climbed close to 62% from a year earlier to $4.84 billion.
Demand and revenue rose over the same period. United carried more than 2% more passengers than a year earlier. Domestic passenger unit revenue increased 14.5%, while the international measure rose 17.4%.
Total quarterly revenue grew 17.4% to $17.88 billion. After adjustments, quarterly net income was $833 million, equal to $2.54 per share. Net income was $1.03 billion, up 8.5% from a year earlier.
Fuel costs are also shaping fare expectations in Europe. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said European airfares could rise by 10% to 20% in 2027, citing limited protection against higher fuel prices.
