Vietnam's goal of at least 10% annual growth through 2030 could require $280 billion to $300 billion in investment each year, an economist estimates, sharpening the challenge of financing more productive expansion.
Can Van Luc, chief economist at Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV), presented the estimate at the Autumn Economic Forum in Ho Chi Minh City. His calculation assumes yearly investment equal to about 35% to 40% of gross domestic product.
The government's 2026-30 plan targets average total social investment of about 40% of GDP. Public investment would make up 20% to 22% of that total, leaving the larger share to be mobilized from domestic private and foreign sources.
The National Assembly has separately set VND8.22 quadrillion, nearly $312 billion, in state-budget public investment for the full five years. Luc's estimate covers annual investment across the economy; the assembly's figure covers a narrower category over the entire period.
At the Oct. 28 forum, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung said Vietnam was pursuing average annual growth of at least 10% in 2026-30 and linked that ambition to productivity gains. Figures he cited showed GDP growth of 9.01% in the first nine months of 2026. Total social investment exceeded $120 billion during the period, up 15.1% from a year earlier.
In its May 2026 economic update, the World Bank cautioned that spending with little productive payoff and reforms that fall short in practice could leave Vietnam at middle-income levels. It identified reliance on bank financing and growth driven by adding labor and capital as constraints. The bank said deeper capital markets and stronger links between foreign investors and domestic businesses could help local firms and workers benefit. It also cited the collapse in corporate bond issuance in 2022-23 while discussing financing constraints.
Vietnam's longer-term goal is to become a developed, high-income country by 2045.
