U.S. data showed September payrolls rose by 29,000 while third-quarter GDP expanded at a 3.4% annual rate, giving markets contrasting signals as investors await this week’s labor releases.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a 4.2% unemployment rate. Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% from August and 3% over 12 months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimated that growth accelerated from 2.2% in the second quarter.
The September employment report revised earlier payroll figures lower. BLS changed July from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and cut August’s increase from 162,000 to 133,000. The revisions reduced the combined two-month total by 60,000.
At its Oct. 28 meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, favoring a quarter-point increase. The Fed described economic activity as strong and inflation as elevated. Chair Kevin Warsh said the committee needed more information before deciding on its policy stance.
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) global head of markets strategy Elias Haddad wrote on Oct. 30 that a technology share sell-off and doubts about returns from the AI boom had weighed on the dollar and short-term Treasury yields. He said concern about slower AI investment had also cooled expectations for further rate increases. BBH cited earnings from Alphabet, Amazon and Intel as contributing to questions about AI returns. Treasury data show the two-year par yield fell from 4.69% on Oct. 23 to 4.56% on Oct. 30.
The BLS has scheduled its September Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for Tuesday, Nov. 3, at 10 a.m. ET (15:00 UTC). ADP’s October employment report is due Wednesday, Nov. 4, at 8:15 a.m. ET (13:15 UTC), followed by the BLS October jobs report Friday, Nov. 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC).
