The White House claimed a record low in southern border crossings Tuesday, but earlier U.S. Border Patrol apprehension totals were lower, complicating the administration’s account of its immigration crackdown.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) put southwest-border apprehensions at 98,708 in preliminary fiscal 2026 data. That was 95% below the Biden administration comparison the agencies used. They also reported 379,243 encounters nationwide, an 88% decline from fiscal 2023.
CBP’s historical series lists 62,640 southwest-border apprehensions in fiscal 1966 and 73,973 in fiscal 1967. Both totals are below the fiscal 2026 figure, which therefore does not establish an all-time low for that measure. Apprehensions are also narrower than all unauthorized crossings. CBP’s nationwide encounter series includes Border Patrol apprehensions, people found inadmissible at ports of entry and Title 42 expulsions.
President Donald Trump’s Jan. 20, 2025, emergency proclamation called for military support and more physical barriers at the southern border. DHS credits its enforcement policies with discouraging unauthorized entry, though its figures do not isolate the effect of any one measure. The agency also reported zero Border Patrol releases in fiscal 2026, based on preliminary data.
The White House said net migration turned negative in 2025. Brookings Institution researchers estimated a calendar-year balance between minus 295,000 and minus 10,000 people, which they described as the first negative annual balance in at least half a century. They attributed much of the change to fewer arrivals, particularly through the southwest border and humanitarian programs, rather than removals alone.
For July 2024 through June 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated positive net international migration of 1.3 million. It projected about 321,000 for the year ending July 2026 if trends continued. The Census and Brookings estimates cover different periods and use different methods; Census figures do not identify migrants’ legal status.
The White House presents U.S. citizens and communities as beneficiaries of its enforcement approach. NAFSA: Association of International Educators projects as many as 111,000 fewer international students this fall, with up to $3.4 billion less in economic contribution and nearly 40,000 fewer jobs supported. Its projection relies partly on responses from educational institutions. NAFSA said an Institute of International Education enrollment snapshot later this fall should provide a firmer count.
