The World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group project a $160 billion to $170 billion digital gold market by 2031 if providers can overcome obstacles to wider adoption.
The central scenario, published Oct. 19, compares with the study’s current market estimate of $45 billion to $55 billion. The researchers calculate that it would produce about $95 billion in new demand for gold after accounting for money moved from other gold products.
A separate $700 billion figure measures potential additional demand under far more sweeping assumptions. It uses current population and wealth levels and assumes obstacles involving trust, access, usefulness and cost disappear immediately, with investors responding in full. The researchers attach no target year to that calculation.
The study defines digital gold as accounts holding metal in vaults and tokens backed by physical gold. Vaulted accounts represent about 89% of the market’s value; tokens make up the remaining 11%. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds, leveraged products and gold-backed stablecoins are outside its scope.
In a survey of more than 12,000 people across 12 markets, nearly nine in 10 respondents said they would consider digital gold if conditions suited them. That response measures interest, not purchases. Better proof that holdings are backed by physical metal would make the product more appealing to 33% of respondents, while 35% cited clearer rules and consumer protections.
Wider access could bring new investors into the gold market, the researchers said, drawing a comparison with the earlier growth of gold-backed exchange-traded funds. Providers, meanwhile, face the cost of holding physical gold and may seek other revenue to cover it.
If adoption obstacles largely remain, the study puts the digital gold market at $70 billion to $80 billion in 2031. Faster progress would raise its modeled range to $270 billion to $280 billion. Each range describes the total market value, rather than new investment alone.
The scenarios do not account for a major hack, a custody failure or fraud at a large issuer. They also assume gold prices do not change substantially.
The World Gold Council points to regulation, terms for redeeming holdings for physical gold, access through banks, pricing and new uses as indicators of whether adoption is moving toward the central scenario.
