Kalshi’s year-end contracts marked down the odds of XRP reaching $2, while Bitcoin and Ether price targets also lost probability in a Thursday morning snapshot.
At 7:05 a.m. EDT (11:05 UTC) Thursday, Oct. 15, Kalshi’s XRP contract showed a 20% market-implied chance of reaching $2 by year-end, down 14 percentage points from the previous day. Bitcoin’s $100,000 target carried 27% odds, three points lower than a day earlier. Ether’s $3,500 target stood at 15%, down six points.
XRP’s estimate has moved sharply since August. Kalshi’s market put the chance at 17% on Aug. 17, then at 61% on Sept. 23, before the estimate dropped to 20% on Thursday.
For October-end targets, Kalshi’s market put Bitcoin at 30% for $87,500 and 22% for $90,000. Ether’s $3,000 target was at 7%, and XRP’s $1.60 target at 15%. The percentages are market-implied chances attached to particular price levels and deadlines.
