China’s onshore yuan reached its strongest level since June 2022 on Oct. 26, as official data showed a $378.0 billion first-half 2026 current-account surplus and FXStreet reported higher Standard Chartered forecasts.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said the capital and financial accounts recorded a $345.2 billion deficit during the same period. The goods surplus was $526.3 billion, while services recorded a $115.0 billion deficit. SAFE also reported a $43.4 billion primary-income deficit and a $10.1 billion secondary-income surplus. Its final balance-of-payments data follow BPM6 and include reserve assets in the capital and financial accounts.
FXStreet reported that Standard Chartered economists Shuang Ding and Hunter Chan raised the bank’s forecast for China’s current-account surplus in 2026 to 4.0% of gross domestic product from 2.5%, and its 2027 forecast to 3.6% from 2.0%. The outlet attributed the changes to first-half goods and services results that were more favorable than the economists had expected. FXStreet also said Ding and Chan viewed China’s external balance as supporting gradual yuan gains and further opening of the capital account.
The People’s Bank of China set its daily midpoint at 6.7162 yuan per dollar on Oct. 26, 471 pips weaker for the yuan than Reuters’ estimate of 6.6691. Reuters reported that the onshore yuan had touched 6.6682 per dollar, its strongest level since June 2022. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters viewed the midpoint as a signal that policymakers wanted to manage the pace of the currency’s gains.
SAFE has described the pairing of a current-account surplus with a capital and financial account deficit as a “self-balancing pattern.” In July, SAFE deputy administrator and spokesperson Li Bin said the two sides had expanded together since 2022 as Chinese banks, companies and other entities invested abroad. He said those investments met Chinese entities’ needs to conduct business overseas and allocate assets, while also supporting industries and financial markets in partner countries.
Reuters said investors were watching China’s fifth plenum for policy signals and central-bank meetings later that week.
