Market Roundup
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3%
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
• US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% ,0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Feb) 0.8% ,0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Feb) 0.1%, -0.6% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% ,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb) 0.0%, 0.4% previous
• US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 5.0%, 4.9% forecast, 4.3% previous
• US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar) 4.1% ,3.9% forecast, 3.5% previous
• US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar) 52.6, 54.2 forecast, 64.0 previous
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) 57.0, 57.9 forecast, 64.7 previous
• US Michigan Current Conditions (Mar) 63.8, 63.5 forecast, 65.7 previous
•Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jan) -26.85B, -21.72B previous
•Canada Budget Balance (Jan) -5.13B, 1.00B previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.8%, -1.8% forecast, -1.8% previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 484, 486 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 592 ,593 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as dollar weakened as investors weighed disappointing U.S. economic data and awaited the next round of Washington's trade tariffs. U.S. consumer spending rebounded less than expected in February while a measure of underlying prices increased by the most in 13 months, stoking fears the economy was facing a period of tepid growth and high inflation. Markets are now bracing for Trump's plans for reciprocal tariffs, which he intends to lay out on April 2.Trump's policies are perceived as inflationary, posing a risk to economic growth and escalating trade tensions, analysts say. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0958(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Friday as the UK currency was supported by encouraging UK economic data. British retail sales unexpectedly rose in February, growing 1.0% from January, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics. A poll of economists had forecasted a monthly fall of 0.4% in sales volumes. This marked the second consecutive monthly increase in retail sales, following a dismal reading in December, a key month for holiday shopping. A separate data release on Friday showed the UK economy expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, growth increased by 1.5%, compared to forecasts of a 1.4% rise. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against US dollar on Friday as investors digested U.S. and Canadian economic data and awaited the next round of Washington's trade tariffs.U.S. consumer spending rebounded in February, but fell short of expectations, while core prices surged at the fastest pace in 13 months, raising concerns about a period of slow growth and high inflation.Canada's GDP rose by 0.4% in January, maintaining positive momentum from previous months, but the preliminary estimate for February showed no growth in economic activity. Attention is now on the new round of tariffs set to be unveiled by the Trump administration on April 2, with Trump suggesting that these measures may differ from the previously promised tit-for-tat duties. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4513 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3862 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4366(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4324 (Feb 27th low)
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Friday after U.S. data stoked fears of weak economic growth and high inflation as the Trump administration ratchets up tariffs.U.S. consumer spending rebounded less than anticipated in February, while core prices rose at the fastest pace in 13 months. Additionally, a University of Michigan survey revealed that 12-month inflation expectations among consumers spiked to their highest level in nearly two and a half years in March, with expectations for sustained inflation beyond the next year.The data sparked fears that tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump since January could raise import prices, increase inflation, and prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.50.00(Psychological level) a break below could take the pair towards 149.81(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares pulled back from record highs on Tuesday, joining a global sell-off as U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China took effect. Investors grew concerned about the impact on global growth and the possibility of similar levies targeting Europe.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.98 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.93 percent.
Wall Street stocks fell on Friday as U.S. data raised concerns about weak growth and high inflation amid escalating tariffs.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.69 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.97% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.70% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a record high on Friday as investors sought safety amid fears of a global trade war triggered by President Trump's new tariffs.
Spot gold climbed 0.6% to $3,074.43 an ounce as of 02:41 p.m. EDT (1839 GMT) after hitting its eighteenth record high this year at $3,086.70 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $3,114.30.
Oil prices fell on Friday over recession fears from U.S. tariffs but rose for a third straight week as Washington intensified pressure on Venezuela and Iran.
Brent crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.5% to settle at $73.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell 56 cents, or 0.8%, to close at $69.36 a barrel.
