Market Roundup
• UK Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.5% ,3.6% forecast,3.7% previous
• UK Core RPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6%, -0.1% previous
• UK Core RPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.0% ,3.2% previous
• UK CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.8% ,3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
• UK CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast,-0.1% previous
• UK CPI, n.s.a (Feb) 136.00, 135.40 previous
• UK CPIH (YoY) 3.7% ,3.9% previous
• UK RPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast, 3.6% previous
• UK RPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6% ,0.8% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French Consumer Confidence (Mar) 92, 94 forecast, 93 previous
•Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8% ,0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q4) 3.4%, 3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.7%,0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.9%,-1.1% forecast, 3.1% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Feb) 0.8%, 3.5% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Feb) -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Feb) 0.4%,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.500M forecast, 1.745M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 1.500M forecast, 1.745M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.045M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -1.439M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.009M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.151M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -2.812M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production 0.067M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.008M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 0.4% previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -0.527M previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -1.8% forecast, -1.8%previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
•14:00 Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Wednesday as caution dominated ahead of a fresh round of U.S. tariffs set for next week. Next week, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose - or at least provide details of - a new round of tariffs on autos, chips and pharmaceuticals. Trump’s tariff measures are anticipated to slow economic growth and escalate trade tensions. On Monday, he confirmed that automobile tariffs are coming soon but suggested that not all levies would take effect on April 2, with some countries potentially receiving exemptions .The euro , which spent a week edging lower from a five-month high, has dropped to $1.0776. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0840(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0958(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0741(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0650(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased against the dollar on Wednesday after data showed British inflation slowed more than expected in February. Consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in February, down from 3.0% in January, as clothing and footwear prices declined for the first time in over three years, according to the Office for National Statistics. British markets are in the spotlight on Wednesday as Finance Minister Rachel Reeves prepares to unveil spending cuts, seeking to reassure investors of her plan to stabilize public finances amid slowing growth. Money markets fully priced in a 25 bps BoE rate cut in August and a 80% chance of such a move in June. The pound was down 0.28% to $1.2908. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3012(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3072(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2902(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2873(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Wednesday, shrugging off data showing a slowdown in inflation as markets remained focused on potential relief from escalating U.S. tariffs.Australia’s inflation eased in February, with lower electricity prices and falling home building costs strengthening the case for further rate cuts. Official data showed consumer prices were flat, while annual inflation fell to 2.4% from 2.5%, against expectations for no change.Meanwhile, the Australian government introduced tax cuts and cost-of-living relief measures ahead of the May elections, pushing the budget into deficit. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6358(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6383(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6268(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6214(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained against the yen on Wednesday as traders sought clarity on President Donald Trump’s trade policy ahead of next week’s tariffs. Some optimism emerged after Trump suggested that not all levies would take effect on April 2, with certain countries potentially receiving exemptions, though details remain unclear.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that interest rates must rise if persistent food price increases lead to broad-based inflation, reaffirming the bank’s commitment to scaling back monetary support. However, he noted that Japan’s recent high inflation has been largely driven by temporary factors, such as rising import costs and food prices, which are expected to fade, reducing the urgency for immediate rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.12(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.52(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.68(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Wednesday, dragged down by losses in healthcare shares, while caution dominated ahead of a new round of U.S. tariffs set to take effect next week.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.22 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed for a second straight session on Wednesday, supported by safe-haven demand as markets awaited further clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,023.63 an ounce by 1102 GMT, while U.S. gold futures also rose 0.1% to $3,029.10.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday as fears of tighter global supply grew following the U.S. threat of tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan crude, along with a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures gained 49 cents, or 0.67%, to $73.51 a barrel by 0950 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 48 cents, or 0.70%, to $69.48 a barrel
