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Jefferies analysts downgraded Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock to Underperform from Hold, reducing the price target to $200.75 from $211.84, signaling a potential 13% downside. The downgrade reflects concerns over Apple's fiscal Q1 2025 earnings and guidance, with analysts predicting the company will miss its revenue growth target of 5% and guide for low single-digit growth in Q2.
The bearish outlook stems from weak iPhone sales and subdued expectations for the iPhone 17 and 18, driven by “slower AI uptake and commercialization.” Jefferies revised their Q1 iPhone shipment forecast to a 2% decline from a 1% growth, citing a 4% year-over-year drop in shipments according to IDC data. Demand in China has reportedly dropped sharply, while other markets may see marginal growth.
Other Apple products like iPads and MacBooks face challenges amid a sluggish consumer electronics market. Optimism for Chinese demand is dampened by new government policies limiting subsidies for most iPhone models. Additionally, demand for the SE4 could fall short, competing against used iPhone 13/14 models rather than Android alternatives.
Jefferies also flagged a subdued outlook for smartphone AI, noting that US consumers find the feature less useful. Delays in Apple’s advanced packaging roadmap for AI capabilities further raise concerns. Analysts believe AI monetization challenges could slow iPhone upgrade cycles despite potential new form factors.
Jefferies slashed Apple’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY25 and FY26 by 2% to 23%, with projections now 4% below consensus. These factors, combined with slower AI adoption, contribute to the cautious outlook for Apple's growth trajectory.
