Market Roundup
• New Zealand NZIER QSBO Capacity Utilization (Q4) 90.5%, 91.3% previous
• New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1) 19%, 16% previous
• Japan Adjusted Current Account (Feb) 2.32T, 2.74T forecast, 1.95T previous
• Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Feb) 4.061T, 3.800T forecast, -0.258T previous
•Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Apr) -6.0%, 4.0% previous
•Australia NAB Business Confidence (Mar) -3, -2 previous
•Australia NAB Business Survey (Mar) 4, 4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:40 Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 2.173% previous
•08:40 Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 2.255% previous
•09:00 UK 30-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 5.104% previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Tuesday as traders speculated on potential retaliatory actions following the latest economic developments. With global trade tensions intensifying, particularly between the U.S. and key trading partners like China and the European Union, markets are closely monitoring any signs of further protectionist policies. The European Commission proposed counter-tariffs of 25% on a range of U.S. goods on Monday as the 27-member bloc struggles with tariffs on autos and metals already in place, and faces a 20% tariff on other products on Wednesday. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currencies against six other units, was 0.44% lower on Tuesday. The euro rose 0.58% to $1.0967, not far from the six-month high it hit last week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1053(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1168(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0856(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0783(April 2nd low).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as growing recession concerns weighed on the markets, driven by President Trump’s sweeping tariffs. As trade tensions between the U.S. and its partners escalated, the U.S. dollar came under pressure. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized Britain’s commitment to securing a strong economic partnership with the U.S. while also reducing trade barriers with other key global partners. Amid increasing economic uncertainty, traders boosted expectations of a near 100% chance of a Bank of England interest rate cut in May, up from 50% before Trump's latest tariff announcement. The shift reflects concerns about the impact of the trade war on the UK economy and the broader global market. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2979(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3165(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2812(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2686(March 4th low).
AUD/USD: AUD/USD rebounded from a five-year low on Tuesday as recovery was fueled by hopes that Washington may be open to negotiating its aggressive tariff policies. Trump's advisers indicated that he is open to negotiations with countries working to avoid tariffs as high as 50%, set to take effect on Wednesday. White House economic adviser Stephen Miran urged countries seeking to avoid high reciprocal U.S. tariff rates to present offers to President Trump. Markets remain vulnerable to concerns U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies will cause economic pain globally, and particularly for China Australia's single biggest export market.At GMT 07:53, The Australian dollar was 1% stronger at $0.6057 against US dollar, but remained near the five-year low it hit on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6055(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6147 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.5943(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.5900(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against Japanese yen on Tuesday as as financial markets grappled with mounting recession worries in the wake of President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. Investors have flocked to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc in the past week, seeking shelter from the market turmoil. Currency markets were fragile but eerily calm in Asian trade after a volatile 24 hours where the dollar reversed heavy losses against the safe haven currencies as traders took stock of developments. The yen was last slightly stronger at 147.325 per U.S. dollar, near the six-month high of 144.82 touched on Friday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.55(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.02(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks bounced back from a one-year low, fueled by hopes that Washington might ease aggressive tariffs contributing to market turmoil.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 6.01% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.26%,Hang Seng was up by 1.35%
Commodities Recap
old prices rebounded on Tuesday as investors bought the dip, following a nearly four-week low hit the previous day, amid rising market volatility and an escalating trade war.
Spot gold gained 0.8% to $3,005.38 an ounce as of 0605 GMT. On Monday, bullion hit its lowest level since March 13.
Oil prices rose 1% on Tuesday, recovering from a nearly four-year low, amid concerns that U.S. tariffs could reduce demand and cause a global recession, though risks remain.
Brent futures were up 66 cents, or 1%, at $64.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 67 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.37, at 0650 GMT.
