Europe Roundup : Pound rises on strong UK GDP data and weaker dollar, European shares head for third weekly decline,Gold surges-April 11th,2025

Market Roundup

•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Feb)0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.3% previous

•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Feb)1.6%, 1.6% forecast, 0.0% previous

•UK GDP (MoM) (Feb)0.5%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous

•UK GDP (YoY) (Feb)1.4%, 0.9% forecast, 1.2% previous

•UK Index of Services0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous

•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Feb) 0.1%, -2.3% forecast, -0.5% previous

• UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Feb)1.5%, 0.1% forecast, -0.5% previous

•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Feb)2.2%, 0.2% forecast, -1.0% previous

• UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Feb)0.3%, -2.4% forecast, -0.9% previous

•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Feb)0.6%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous

•UK Trade Balance (Feb) -20.81B, -17.30B forecast, -18.22B previous

•UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Feb)-8.58B,   -7.37B previous            

•German CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous

•German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous

•German HICP (MoM) (Mar) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous

•German HICP (YoY) (Mar) 2.3%, 2.3% forecast, 2.6% previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

• 12:30 US Core PPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% forecast                -0.1% previous 

• 12:30 US Core PPI (YoY) (Mar)                 3.6% forecast   3.4% previous                   

• 12:30 US PPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous                           

• 12:30 US PPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.3% forecast, 3.2% previous               

• 12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Mar) 3.3% previous    

• 12:30 US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Mar)                0.2%    previous

•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr)  5.0% previous   

•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr)  4.1% previous   

•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr)  50.8forecast 52.6 previous    

•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 54.0 forecast, 57.0 previous       

•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Apr)  61.5 forecast,63.8 previous

Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)

•No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD: The euro climbed to its highest level in three years on Fridayas dollar weaked as global markets reacted to deepening trade tensions and recession fears. The intensifying trade war primarily between the U.S. and Chinahas triggered widespread market anxiety, prompting a flight to safe-haven assets.Despite that short-lived pause, concerns remain elevated. President Trump recently raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an effective rate of 145%, prompting an immediate retaliation from China. In response, Beijing hiked its own tariffs on U.S. goods, now nearing 84%, with speculation that further increases may follow. The deepening standoff between the world’s two largest economies continues to weigh heavily on sentiment, with markets bracing for more volatility ahead. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1464(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1195(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1162(50%fib).

GBP/USD: The British pound gained ground against the U.S. dollar on Friday, buoyed by a combination of a weaker dollar and surprisingly strong UK economic data. Fresh figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew by 0.5% in February, far exceeding economists' expectations of just 0.1%. On a yearly basis, GDP rose by 1.4%, also ahead of the 0.9% forecast. Adding to the positive news, the ONS revised January’s GDP figure upwardinitially reported as a 0.1% decline, it’s now estimated to have shown no change from December, reflecting a more stable economic picture at the start of the year.The upbeat data helped lift the pound, as it suggests the UK economy may be on firmer footing than previously thought, despite ongoing global uncertainties. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3146(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3222(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3029(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2866(50%fib).

AUD/USD: Australian dollar steadied on Friday as dollar weakened as  investors jostled to square their books after brutal week marked by all-out trade war and a dramatic loss of confidence in U.S. assets. Markets got a brief break Wednesday as Trump paused tariffs for 90 days on several countries. Still, his growing trade war with China has stoked recession fears and talk of more retaliation. A week of turmoil triggered by President Trump’s tariffs continued with no relief in sight by Friday. Markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut its 4.10% cash rate by 25 basis points on May 18.At GMT 12:20, the Australian dollar was trading lower 0.46% at $0.6244 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6335(April 4th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6250(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6146(50%fib)  , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6047(38.2%fib).

 USD/JPY: The dollar   declined against Japanese yen on Friday  as traders sought safe-haven assets as concerns over trade tariffs kept markets on edge. Investors have sought safety since the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs, pressuring the dollar and boosting safe havens like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Trump’s trade war shook global markets again Thursday, with stocks and oil falling on fears China might retaliate with higher tariffs.China has been countering Trump’s tariff hikes, sparking concerns that Beijing could escalate U.S. duties beyond the current 84%.The dollar index  , which measures the greenback against those three currencies and three more major counterparts, sagged as much as 1.20%, taking it temporarily below the 100 level for the first time since July 2023.Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.43 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.63 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).

Equities Recap

European markets slipped slightly on Friday, closing out a volatile week dominated by sudden shifts in U.S. trade policy.  

At GMT (12:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.71 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.20percent, France’s CAC  was down by 0.35 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold jumped nearly 2% on Friday, breaking above the $3,200 level for the first time, as a weakening U.S. dollar and mounting recession fears driven by the escalating U.S.-China trade war boosted demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold was up 1.4% to $3,217.15 an ounce at 1211 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,237.56 earlier in the session. Bullion is up nearly 6% so far this week.

Oil prices were little changed on Friday but remained on course for a second straight weekly decline, as growing investor unease over the escalating U.S.-China trade conflict continued to weigh on the outlook for global demand.

Brent crude futures were up 16 cents, or 0.25%, at $63.49 a barrel by 1221 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added 15 cents, or 0.25%, to $60.22.